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| Nuclear Deterrence: A Comparative Case Study of Ukraine and Pakistan |
Nuclear Deterrence: A Comparative Case
Study of Ukraine and Pakistan
In 1994, Ukraine relinquished
its nuclear arsenal in exchange for security and defense assurances from global
powers. Subsequently, Russia began to exert pressure on Ukraine due to its
weakened position, which escalated into the current ongoing conflict. The
recent contentious meeting between Ukrainian President Zelensky and US
President Trump in the Oval Office raises several significant questions.
What assurances led Ukraine to
relinquish its nuclear weapons, making it confident in its defense against a
major power like Russia? Even with or without its nuclear capabilities, was
Ukraine capable of withstanding Russian aggression? If Ukraine could not
resist, why were matters allowed to escalate to this point? Although Russia has
not used nuclear or unconventional weapons, has Ukraine, despite substantial
foreign aid, inflicted as much damage on Russia through conventional warfare as
it has suffered itself? The war is being fought entirely on Ukrainian
territory, resulting in the loss of numerous regions, the deaths and injuries
of thousands, possibly hundreds of thousands, of Ukrainian soldiers and
civilians, and a devastated economy. If a peaceful resolution is not reached,
what will be the outcome of the war, and what does the future hold? These
numerous fears foreshadow utter devastation. Would Russia have invaded Ukraine
if it still possessed nuclear weapons? If Russia had invaded, would the war
have persisted for this extended period? And if it had, would the outcome have
been the same as what we are witnessing?
The answer to all these questions is undoubtedly negative. Here, the importance of nuclear deterrence becomes starkly evident. Let us now examine this answer in the context of Pakistan.
Pakistan's Nuclear Program: Weapons for Peace
When we examine Pakistan within
its regional context, we observe ongoing border and other disputes with
neighboring countries, particularly India, Iran, and Afghanistan. Notably,
Pakistan and India have engaged in four major wars. A potential fifth major
conflict was narrowly averted in 2019, with the situation contained before it further
escalated. Routine border provocations persist daily.
India significantly surpasses
Pakistan in terms of land area, population, economy, and quantitative capabilities
of conventional warfare. India may justify its need for greater strength by
citing the necessity to counter China. However, the reality is that the
likelihood of offensive aggression from India towards a global power like China
is minimal; its defense posture is a more plausible explanation. Pakistan faces
the primary threat from this imbalanced power dynamic. To deter this asymmetry,
Pakistan requires nuclear assets. Pakistan's existence, survival, integrity,
sovereignty, defense, and development are contingent upon its nuclear program.
Furthermore, Pakistan requires
nuclear power plants to meet its energy needs. Rather than bearing the immense
economic burden of importing oil and gas to generate electricity, and passing
this burden onto its citizens, Pakistan would undoubtedly prefer to fulfill its
energy requirements through nuclear power plants from an economic standpoint.
Pakistan's Nuclear Capability: A Divine Mandate and National Imperative
The foundation of Pakistan's
nuclear doctrine is rooted in this blessed verse from the Holy Quran – the Book
of Allah:
{وَأَعِدُّوا لَهُمْ مَا اسْتَطَعْتُمْ مِنْ قُوَّةٍ وَمِنْ
رِبَاطِ الْخَيْلِ تُرْهِبُونَ بِهِ عَدُوَّ اللَّهِ وَعَدُوَّكُمْ وَآخَرِينَ
مِنْ دُونِهِمْ لَا تَعْلَمُونَهُمُ اللَّهُ يَعْلَمُهُمْ وَمَا تُنْفِقُوا مِنْ
شَيْءٍ فِي سَبِيلِ اللَّهِ يُوَفَّ إِلَيْكُمْ وَأَنْتُمْ لَا تُظْلَمُونَ (60)}
[الأنفال: 60].
{And prepare against them whatever force you are able, and the trained horses, with which you may terrify the enemy of Allah, and your enemy, and others besides them whom you do not know, Allah knows them, and whatever you spend in the way of Allah will be fully repaid to you, and you shall not be wronged (60)} [Al-Anfal: 60].
Following this blessed verse,
the preparation of all forms of military power, including nuclear assets, to
fulfill our defensive needs is a divine commandment. In light of this divine
injunction, its acquisition is obligatory and a duty upon us, its maintenance
is our responsibility, and its further strengthening is our fundamental right as
a nation, which no power in the world has the authority to deny. Therefore, it
is imperative to counter all conspiracies against it, as any effort against it
falls under the categories of disobeying Allah's command, treachery to the nation, and short-sightedness for the consequences.
Should any person of limited
understanding harbor concerns about the economic costs, Allah Almighty, in this
very verse, addresses this apprehension, stating that the rewards for wealth
spent in His cause, in the fulfillment and compliance of His commands, will be
given to you in full, and you will not be wronged. This can be practically
observed through Pakistan's defense exports, as, by the grace of Allah, our
defense institutions are not only self-sufficient in meeting their own needs
but also serve as a source of substantial foreign exchange for the country
through defense exports.
Key Features of Pakistan's Nuclear Doctrine
Pakistan's nuclear doctrine
plays a significant role in maintaining regional stability and peace. It is
defensive in normal situations, designed to deter aggression. Pakistan
maintains that nuclear weapons would be utilized in situations where the
nation's survival is at stake.
Key features of Pakistan's
nuclear doctrine include:
- Minimum Credible Deterrence: Pakistan aims to maintain a minimum nuclear arsenal sufficient to deter potential adversaries.
- Full Spectrum Deterrence: Pakistan maintains a full spectrum of deterrence capabilities, including land, sea, and air-based delivery systems.
- No First Use Ambiguity: While Pakistan has not formally declared a "no first use" policy, it asserts that nuclear weapons would only be employed as a last resort.
- Safety and Security: Pakistan is committed to ensuring the safety and security of its nuclear arsenal.
Summary
In summary, our nuclear weapons
are for peaceful defensive purposes and fully compliant with international
laws. Their objective is to deter aggression from the enemy. By the special grace
and favor of Allah, according to reports from international institutions,
Pakistan's nuclear program is among the most advanced nuclear programs in the
world, adhering fully to the most stringent global safety and security
protocols and meeting all international standards to the fullest degree.
We cannot express enough
gratitude to Allah for this. May Allah grant us further strength and power, and
may He reward those who have contributed to this program in any capacity with
the best of rewards, according to His glory. Aameen.
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